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2018


Probabilistic Solutions To Ordinary Differential Equations As Non-Linear Bayesian Filtering: A New Perspective
Probabilistic Solutions To Ordinary Differential Equations As Non-Linear Bayesian Filtering: A New Perspective

Tronarp, F., Kersting, H., Särkkä, S., Hennig, P.

ArXiv preprint 2018, arXiv:1810.03440 [stat.ME], October 2018 (article)

Abstract
We formulate probabilistic numerical approximations to solutions of ordinary differential equations (ODEs) as problems in Gaussian process (GP) regression with non-linear measurement functions. This is achieved by defining the measurement sequence to consists of the observations of the difference between the derivative of the GP and the vector field evaluated at the GP---which are all identically zero at the solution of the ODE. When the GP has a state-space representation, the problem can be reduced to a Bayesian state estimation problem and all widely-used approximations to the Bayesian filtering and smoothing problems become applicable. Furthermore, all previous GP-based ODE solvers, which were formulated in terms of generating synthetic measurements of the vector field, come out as specific approximations. We derive novel solvers, both Gaussian and non-Gaussian, from the Bayesian state estimation problem posed in this paper and compare them with other probabilistic solvers in illustrative experiments.

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link (url) Project Page [BibTex]

2018



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Convergence Rates of Gaussian ODE Filters

Kersting, H., Sullivan, T. J., Hennig, P.

arXiv preprint 2018, arXiv:1807.09737 [math.NA], July 2018 (article)

Abstract
A recently-introduced class of probabilistic (uncertainty-aware) solvers for ordinary differential equations (ODEs) applies Gaussian (Kalman) filtering to initial value problems. These methods model the true solution $x$ and its first $q$ derivatives a priori as a Gauss--Markov process $\boldsymbol{X}$, which is then iteratively conditioned on information about $\dot{x}$. We prove worst-case local convergence rates of order $h^{q+1}$ for a wide range of versions of this Gaussian ODE filter, as well as global convergence rates of order $h^q$ in the case of $q=1$ and an integrated Brownian motion prior, and analyse how inaccurate information on $\dot{x}$ coming from approximate evaluations of $f$ affects these rates. Moreover, we present explicit formulas for the steady states and show that the posterior confidence intervals are well calibrated in all considered cases that exhibit global convergence---in the sense that they globally contract at the same rate as the truncation error.

pn

link (url) Project Page [BibTex]

link (url) Project Page [BibTex]


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Nonlinear decoding of a complex movie from the mammalian retina

Botella-Soler, V., Deny, S., Martius, G., Marre, O., Tkačik, G.

PLOS Computational Biology, 14(5):1-27, Public Library of Science, May 2018 (article)

Abstract
Author summary Neurons in the retina transform patterns of incoming light into sequences of neural spikes. We recorded from ∼100 neurons in the rat retina while it was stimulated with a complex movie. Using machine learning regression methods, we fit decoders to reconstruct the movie shown from the retinal output. We demonstrated that retinal code can only be read out with a low error if decoders make use of correlations between successive spikes emitted by individual neurons. These correlations can be used to ignore spontaneous spiking that would, otherwise, cause even the best linear decoders to “hallucinate” nonexistent stimuli. This work represents the first high resolution single-trial full movie reconstruction and suggests a new paradigm for separating spontaneous from stimulus-driven neural activity.

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DOI [BibTex]

DOI [BibTex]


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Gaussian Processes and Kernel Methods: A Review on Connections and Equivalences

Kanagawa, M., Hennig, P., Sejdinovic, D., Sriperumbudur, B. K.

Arxiv e-prints, arXiv:1805.08845v1 [stat.ML], 2018 (article)

Abstract
This paper is an attempt to bridge the conceptual gaps between researchers working on the two widely used approaches based on positive definite kernels: Bayesian learning or inference using Gaussian processes on the one side, and frequentist kernel methods based on reproducing kernel Hilbert spaces on the other. It is widely known in machine learning that these two formalisms are closely related; for instance, the estimator of kernel ridge regression is identical to the posterior mean of Gaussian process regression. However, they have been studied and developed almost independently by two essentially separate communities, and this makes it difficult to seamlessly transfer results between them. Our aim is to overcome this potential difficulty. To this end, we review several old and new results and concepts from either side, and juxtapose algorithmic quantities from each framework to highlight close similarities. We also provide discussions on subtle philosophical and theoretical differences between the two approaches.

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arXiv [BibTex]

arXiv [BibTex]


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Numerical Quadrature for Probabilistic Policy Search

Vinogradska, J., Bischoff, B., Achterhold, J., Koller, T., Peters, J.

IEEE Transactions on Pattern Analysis and Machine Intelligence, pages: 1-1, 2018 (article)

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DOI [BibTex]

DOI [BibTex]


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Counterfactual Mean Embedding: A Kernel Method for Nonparametric Causal Inference

Muandet, K., Kanagawa, M., Saengkyongam, S., Marukata, S.

Arxiv e-prints, arXiv:1805.08845v1 [stat.ML], 2018 (article)

Abstract
This paper introduces a novel Hilbert space representation of a counterfactual distribution---called counterfactual mean embedding (CME)---with applications in nonparametric causal inference. Counterfactual prediction has become an ubiquitous tool in machine learning applications, such as online advertisement, recommendation systems, and medical diagnosis, whose performance relies on certain interventions. To infer the outcomes of such interventions, we propose to embed the associated counterfactual distribution into a reproducing kernel Hilbert space (RKHS) endowed with a positive definite kernel. Under appropriate assumptions, the CME allows us to perform causal inference over the entire landscape of the counterfactual distribution. The CME can be estimated consistently from observational data without requiring any parametric assumption about the underlying distributions. We also derive a rate of convergence which depends on the smoothness of the conditional mean and the Radon-Nikodym derivative of the underlying marginal distributions. Our framework can deal with not only real-valued outcome, but potentially also more complex and structured outcomes such as images, sequences, and graphs. Lastly, our experimental results on off-policy evaluation tasks demonstrate the advantages of the proposed estimator.

ei pn

arXiv [BibTex]

arXiv [BibTex]


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Model-based Kernel Sum Rule: Kernel Bayesian Inference with Probabilistic Models

Nishiyama, Y., Kanagawa, M., Gretton, A., Fukumizu, K.

Arxiv e-prints, arXiv:1409.5178v2 [stat.ML], 2018 (article)

Abstract
Kernel Bayesian inference is a powerful nonparametric approach to performing Bayesian inference in reproducing kernel Hilbert spaces or feature spaces. In this approach, kernel means are estimated instead of probability distributions, and these estimates can be used for subsequent probabilistic operations (as for inference in graphical models) or in computing the expectations of smooth functions, for instance. Various algorithms for kernel Bayesian inference have been obtained by combining basic rules such as the kernel sum rule (KSR), kernel chain rule, kernel product rule and kernel Bayes' rule. However, the current framework only deals with fully nonparametric inference (i.e., all conditional relations are learned nonparametrically), and it does not allow for flexible combinations of nonparametric and parametric inference, which are practically important. Our contribution is in providing a novel technique to realize such combinations. We introduce a new KSR referred to as the model-based KSR (Mb-KSR), which employs the sum rule in feature spaces under a parametric setting. Incorporating the Mb-KSR into existing kernel Bayesian framework provides a richer framework for hybrid (nonparametric and parametric) kernel Bayesian inference. As a practical application, we propose a novel filtering algorithm for state space models based on the Mb-KSR, which combines the nonparametric learning of an observation process using kernel mean embedding and the additive Gaussian noise model for a state transition process. While we focus on additive Gaussian noise models in this study, the idea can be extended to other noise models, such as the Cauchy and alpha-stable noise models.

pn

arXiv [BibTex]

arXiv [BibTex]


A probabilistic model for the numerical solution of initial value problems
A probabilistic model for the numerical solution of initial value problems

Schober, M., Särkkä, S., Philipp Hennig,

Statistics and Computing, Springer US, 2018 (article)

Abstract
We study connections between ordinary differential equation (ODE) solvers and probabilistic regression methods in statistics. We provide a new view of probabilistic ODE solvers as active inference agents operating on stochastic differential equation models that estimate the unknown initial value problem (IVP) solution from approximate observations of the solution derivative, as provided by the ODE dynamics. Adding to this picture, we show that several multistep methods of Nordsieck form can be recast as Kalman filtering on q-times integrated Wiener processes. Doing so provides a family of IVP solvers that return a Gaussian posterior measure, rather than a point estimate. We show that some such methods have low computational overhead, nontrivial convergence order, and that the posterior has a calibrated concentration rate. Additionally, we suggest a step size adaptation algorithm which completes the proposed method to a practically useful implementation, which we experimentally evaluate using a representative set of standard codes in the DETEST benchmark set.

pn

PDF Code DOI Project Page [BibTex]

2013


Quasi-Newton Methods: A New Direction
Quasi-Newton Methods: A New Direction

Hennig, P., Kiefel, M.

Journal of Machine Learning Research, 14(1):843-865, March 2013 (article)

Abstract
Four decades after their invention, quasi-Newton methods are still state of the art in unconstrained numerical optimization. Although not usually interpreted thus, these are learning algorithms that fit a local quadratic approximation to the objective function. We show that many, including the most popular, quasi-Newton methods can be interpreted as approximations of Bayesian linear regression under varying prior assumptions. This new notion elucidates some shortcomings of classical algorithms, and lights the way to a novel nonparametric quasi-Newton method, which is able to make more efficient use of available information at computational cost similar to its predecessors.

ei ps pn

website+code pdf link (url) [BibTex]

2013


website+code pdf link (url) [BibTex]


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Analytical probabilistic modeling for radiation therapy treatment planning

Bangert, M., Hennig, P., Oelfke, U.

Physics in Medicine and Biology, 58(16):5401-5419, 2013 (article)

ei pn

PDF DOI [BibTex]

PDF DOI [BibTex]


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Behavior as broken symmetry in embodied self-organizing robots

Der, R., Martius, G.

In Advances in Artificial Life, ECAL 2013, pages: 601-608, MIT Press, 2013 (incollection)

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[BibTex]

[BibTex]


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Information Driven Self-Organization of Complex Robotic Behaviors

Martius, G., Der, R., Ay, N.

PLoS ONE, 8(5):e63400, Public Library of Science, 2013 (article)

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link (url) DOI [BibTex]

link (url) DOI [BibTex]


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Linear combination of one-step predictive information with an external reward in an episodic policy gradient setting: a critical analysis

Zahedi, K., Martius, G., Ay, N.

Frontiers in Psychology, 4(801), 2013 (article)

Abstract
One of the main challenges in the field of embodied artificial intelligence is the open-ended autonomous learning of complex behaviours. Our approach is to use task-independent, information-driven intrinsic motivation(s) to support task-dependent learning. The work presented here is a preliminary step in which we investigate the predictive information (the mutual information of the past and future of the sensor stream) as an intrinsic drive, ideally supporting any kind of task acquisition. Previous experiments have shown that the predictive information (PI) is a good candidate to support autonomous, open-ended learning of complex behaviours, because a maximisation of the PI corresponds to an exploration of morphology- and environment-dependent behavioural regularities. The idea is that these regularities can then be exploited in order to solve any given task. Three different experiments are presented and their results lead to the conclusion that the linear combination of the one-step PI with an external reward function is not generally recommended in an episodic policy gradient setting. Only for hard tasks a great speed-up can be achieved at the cost of an asymptotic performance lost.

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link (url) DOI [BibTex]


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Robustness of guided self-organization against sensorimotor disruptions

Martius, G.

Advances in Complex Systems, 16(02n03):1350001, 2013 (article)

Abstract
Self-organizing processes are crucial for the development of living beings. Practical applications in robots may benefit from the self-organization of behavior, e.g.~to increase fault tolerance and enhance flexibility, provided that external goals can also be achieved. We present results on the guidance of self-organizing control by visual target stimuli and show a remarkable robustness to sensorimotor disruptions. In a proof of concept study an autonomous wheeled robot is learning an object finding and ball-pushing task from scratch within a few minutes in continuous domains. The robustness is demonstrated by the rapid recovery of the performance after severe changes of the sensor configuration.

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DOI [BibTex]

DOI [BibTex]

2006


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Rocking Stamper and Jumping Snake from a Dynamical System Approach to Artificial Life

Der, R., Hesse, F., Martius, G.

Adaptive Behavior, 14(2):105-115, 2006 (article)

Abstract
Dynamical systems offer intriguing possibilities as a substrate for the generation of behavior because of their rich behavioral complexity. However this complexity together with the largely covert relation between the parameters and the behavior of the agent is also the main hindrance in the goal-oriented design of a behavior system. This paper presents a general approach to the self-regulation of dynamical systems so that the design problem is circumvented. We consider the controller (a neural net work) as the mediator for changes in the sensor values over time and define a dynamics for the parameters of the controller by maximizing the dynamical complexity of the sensorimotor loop under the condition that the consequences of the actions taken are still predictable. This very general principle is given a concrete mathematical formulation and is implemented in an extremely robust and versatile algorithm for the parameter dynamics of the controller. We consider two different applications, a mechanical device called the rocking stamper and the ODE simulations of a "snake" with five degrees of freedom. In these and many other examples studied we observed various behavior modes of high dynamical complexity.

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DOI [BibTex]

2006


DOI [BibTex]