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2014


Probabilistic Progress Bars
Probabilistic Progress Bars

Kiefel, M., Schuler, C., Hennig, P.

In Conference on Pattern Recognition (GCPR), 8753, pages: 331-341, Lecture Notes in Computer Science, (Editors: Jiang, X., Hornegger, J., and Koch, R.), Springer, GCPR, September 2014 (inproceedings)

Abstract
Predicting the time at which the integral over a stochastic process reaches a target level is a value of interest in many applications. Often, such computations have to be made at low cost, in real time. As an intuitive example that captures many features of this problem class, we choose progress bars, a ubiquitous element of computer user interfaces. These predictors are usually based on simple point estimators, with no error modelling. This leads to fluctuating behaviour confusing to the user. It also does not provide a distribution prediction (risk values), which are crucial for many other application areas. We construct and empirically evaluate a fast, constant cost algorithm using a Gauss-Markov process model which provides more information to the user.

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website+code pdf DOI [BibTex]

2014


website+code pdf DOI [BibTex]


Probabilistic Solutions to Differential Equations and their Application to Riemannian Statistics
Probabilistic Solutions to Differential Equations and their Application to Riemannian Statistics

Hennig, P., Hauberg, S.

In Proceedings of the 17th International Conference on Artificial Intelligence and Statistics, 33, pages: 347-355, JMLR: Workshop and Conference Proceedings, (Editors: S Kaski and J Corander), Microtome Publishing, Brookline, MA, AISTATS, April 2014 (inproceedings)

Abstract
We study a probabilistic numerical method for the solution of both boundary and initial value problems that returns a joint Gaussian process posterior over the solution. Such methods have concrete value in the statistics on Riemannian manifolds, where non-analytic ordinary differential equations are involved in virtually all computations. The probabilistic formulation permits marginalising the uncertainty of the numerical solution such that statistics are less sensitive to inaccuracies. This leads to new Riemannian algorithms for mean value computations and principal geodesic analysis. Marginalisation also means results can be less precise than point estimates, enabling a noticeable speed-up over the state of the art. Our approach is an argument for a wider point that uncertainty caused by numerical calculations should be tracked throughout the pipeline of machine learning algorithms.

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pdf Youtube Supplements Project page link (url) [BibTex]

pdf Youtube Supplements Project page link (url) [BibTex]


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Local Gaussian Regression

Meier, F., Hennig, P., Schaal, S.

arXiv preprint, March 2014, clmc (misc)

Abstract
Abstract: Locally weighted regression was created as a nonparametric learning method that is computationally efficient, can learn from very large amounts of data and add data incrementally. An interesting feature of locally weighted regression is that it can work with ...

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Web link (url) [BibTex]

Web link (url) [BibTex]


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Probabilistic ODE Solvers with Runge-Kutta Means

Schober, M., Duvenaud, D., Hennig, P.

In Advances in Neural Information Processing Systems 27, pages: 739-747, (Editors: Z. Ghahramani, M. Welling, C. Cortes, N.D. Lawrence and K.Q. Weinberger), Curran Associates, Inc., 28th Annual Conference on Neural Information Processing Systems (NIPS), 2014 (inproceedings)

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Web link (url) [BibTex]

Web link (url) [BibTex]


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Active Learning of Linear Embeddings for Gaussian Processes

Garnett, R., Osborne, M., Hennig, P.

In Proceedings of the 30th Conference on Uncertainty in Artificial Intelligence, pages: 230-239, (Editors: NL Zhang and J Tian), AUAI Press , Corvallis, Oregon, UAI2014, 2014, another link: http://arxiv.org/abs/1310.6740 (inproceedings)

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PDF Web [BibTex]

PDF Web [BibTex]


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Probabilistic Shortest Path Tractography in DTI Using Gaussian Process ODE Solvers

Schober, M., Kasenburg, N., Feragen, A., Hennig, P., Hauberg, S.

In Medical Image Computing and Computer-Assisted Intervention – MICCAI 2014, Lecture Notes in Computer Science Vol. 8675, pages: 265-272, (Editors: P. Golland, N. Hata, C. Barillot, J. Hornegger and R. Howe), Springer, Heidelberg, MICCAI, 2014 (inproceedings)

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DOI [BibTex]

DOI [BibTex]


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Sampling for Inference in Probabilistic Models with Fast Bayesian Quadrature

Gunter, T., Osborne, M., Garnett, R., Hennig, P., Roberts, S.

In Advances in Neural Information Processing Systems 27, pages: 2789-2797, (Editors: Z. Ghahramani, M. Welling, C. Cortes, N.D. Lawrence and K.Q. Weinberger), Curran Associates, Inc., 28th Annual Conference on Neural Information Processing Systems (NIPS), 2014 (inproceedings)

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Web link (url) [BibTex]

Web link (url) [BibTex]


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Incremental Local Gaussian Regression

Meier, F., Hennig, P., Schaal, S.

In Advances in Neural Information Processing Systems 27, pages: 972-980, (Editors: Z. Ghahramani, M. Welling, C. Cortes, N.D. Lawrence and K.Q. Weinberger), 28th Annual Conference on Neural Information Processing Systems (NIPS), 2014, clmc (inproceedings)

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PDF link (url) [BibTex]

PDF link (url) [BibTex]


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Efficient Bayesian Local Model Learning for Control

Meier, F., Hennig, P., Schaal, S.

In Proceedings of the IEEE International Conference on Intelligent Robots and Systems, pages: 2244 - 2249, IROS, 2014, clmc (inproceedings)

Abstract
Model-based control is essential for compliant controland force control in many modern complex robots, like humanoidor disaster robots. Due to many unknown and hard tomodel nonlinearities, analytical models of such robots are oftenonly very rough approximations. However, modern optimizationcontrollers frequently depend on reasonably accurate models,and degrade greatly in robustness and performance if modelerrors are too large. For a long time, machine learning hasbeen expected to provide automatic empirical model synthesis,yet so far, research has only generated feasibility studies butno learning algorithms that run reliably on complex robots.In this paper, we combine two promising worlds of regressiontechniques to generate a more powerful regression learningsystem. On the one hand, locally weighted regression techniquesare computationally efficient, but hard to tune due to avariety of data dependent meta-parameters. On the other hand,Bayesian regression has rather automatic and robust methods toset learning parameters, but becomes quickly computationallyinfeasible for big and high-dimensional data sets. By reducingthe complexity of Bayesian regression in the spirit of local modellearning through variational approximations, we arrive at anovel algorithm that is computationally efficient and easy toinitialize for robust learning. Evaluations on several datasetsdemonstrate very good learning performance and the potentialfor a general regression learning tool for robotics.

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PDF link (url) DOI [BibTex]

PDF link (url) DOI [BibTex]


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Smart@load? Modeling interruption while using a Smartphone-app in alternating workload conditions

Wirzberger, M.

TU Berlin, 2014 (mastersthesis)

Abstract
Based on a time course model of interruption and resumption, the current thesis aims to inspect cognitive processes after being interrupted by product advertisements while performing a shopping task with a smartphone application. In doing so, different levels of mental workload, which are assumed to influence human performance as well as resumption strategy choice in this context, are taken into account. Within the applied research approach, cognitive modeling in the framework of the cognitive architecture ACT-R is combined with the development of a corresponding experimental design. The derived model predictions are validated with a 2x3-factorial design that includes repeated measures upon the second factor, and consists of 62 human participants. In detail, the influence of mental workload (high vs. low) and interruption (no vs. low vs. high) on various aspects of task-related performance and the applied resumption strategy is assessed. While the inspected performance parameters and resumption strategy choice usually point towards the expected direction for the model data, a converse pattern for the human data shows up in most cases. Comparing model and human data for each level of workload displays rather mixed results that are discussed afterwards. An outline of potential expansions and toeholds for future research within and beyond the mobile sector forms the completion of the thesis.

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DOI [BibTex]


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Algorithm selection by rational metareasoning as a model of human strategy selection

Lieder, F., Plunkett, D., Hamrick, J. B., Russell, S. J., Hay, N. J., Griffiths, T. L.

In Advances in Neural Information Processing Systems 27, 2014 (inproceedings)

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Project Page [BibTex]

Project Page [BibTex]


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"I don’t need it!" – Modeling ad-induced interruption while using a Smartphone-app

Wirzberger, M., Russwinkel, N.

CrossWorlds 2014: Theory, Development and Evaluation of Social Technology, 2014 (conference)

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DOI [BibTex]

DOI [BibTex]


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"Keep green!" – Nachhaltige Förderung ökologischen Fahrens durch Simulatortraining? ["Keep green!" – Promoting ecological driving through simulator training in a sustainable manner?]

Wirzberger, M., Lüderitz, C., Rohrer, S., Karrer-Gauß, K.

In 49th Conference of the German Psychological Society. Abstracts, pages: 570, Pabst Science Publishers, Lengerich, 2014 (inproceedings)

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[BibTex]

[BibTex]


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The high availability of extreme events serves resource-rational decision-making

Lieder, F., Hsu, M., Griffiths, T. L.

In Proceedings of the 36th Annual Conference of the Cognitive Science Society, 2014 (inproceedings)

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[BibTex]

[BibTex]


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Layers of Abstraction: (Neuro)computational models of learning local and global statistical regularities

Diaconescu, A., Lieder, F., Mathys, C., Stephan, K. E.

In 20th Annual Meeting of the Organization for Human Brain Mapping, 2014 (inproceedings)

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[BibTex]

[BibTex]


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Modeling of cognitive aspects of mobile interaction

Russwinkel, N., Prezenski, S., Lindner, S., Halbrügge, M., Schulz, M., Wirzberger, M.

Cognitive Processing, 15(Suppl.1), pages: S22-S24, Springer Nature, 2014 (article)

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DOI [BibTex]

DOI [BibTex]